I'm very excited about the progress in self-driving cars, and surely hope I can afford one some day. I think they'll be as transformative to our cultures as the horseless carriages of the early 20th century.
But I don't think personal transportation will lead this wave - I think it will be trucks.
In a very few years, I'm guessing that every trip that you take on an Interstate will expose you to a robotrucker.
Think about all the Walmart trucks you see on the road today. Their routes are already carefully planned to deliver the maximum load for the minimum energy cost and minimal wear and tear on the trucks, and they're guided and monitored by GPS every step of the way. I'd never accuse the drivers of these Walmart trucks of being robots - but I think it's really clear that in the very near future they could likely be replaced by robots.
Federal regulations require human drivers to rest every few hours - Robots never have to rest. Perhaps labor lobbyists will succeed in enacting Federal laws to impose the same rules on robots to level the playing field, but I doubt it. More likely, Federal laws will quickly expand the self-driving footholds in California and Nevada to cover the whole country. Once that happens, and once it's cheaper to insure a robotrucker than a human driven truck - companies like Walmart will take the plunge in mass.
This is bad news for truckers. Their profession won't disappear overnight, but it will be their last generation - something like the fate of most cowboys when the railroads eliminated the need for big cattle drives in the 1880s. The long trail drives from Texas to Abilene Kansas ended for good when the railroads reached the ranches near Abilene Texas. Cowboys survive to this day, but their role in the transportation of cattle ended long ago.
Inching a bit further out on the predictive limb... My guess is that the rise of robotruckers will correspond with the pervasive use of compressed natural gas as the primary truck fuel. CNG is far from a perfect fuel, but natural gas is plentiful and has a well established distribution network. Pipe gas to truck stops, compress it using solar or wind power, and you've got a cleaner and more plentiful fuel than the diesel most trucks currently use. Maybe not as green as batteries or fuel cells, but much less exotic, and thus more likely to gain traction... and if CNG becomes readily available at truck stops it will become much more available for personal vehicles - a win for those of us who would like that option.
But I digress... The fuel preference of robotruckers will likely have less of an effect on the rest of us than the high likelihood that robotruckers will be tattle-tales - they'll likely report every speeder and reckless driver they encounter.
Imagine a world where every truck that you pass is a rolling red-light camera and radar trap...
Robotruckers only concerns are selfish. They need to get their loads to their destination as efficiently and predictably as they can. Their owners are likewise selfish - and the cost of accidents and insurance premiums motivates them to do whatever they can to reduce the number of the first and the cost of the latter. What better way to make life for the robotrucker safer and more predictable than to report drivers who represent a threat?
In many cities, the public has been able to block the universally dispised red light cameras by pressuring public officials - but public outrage won't ever silence those who report unsafe drivers - and a legion of dispassionate and accurate robotruckers reporting every transgression is going to force the rest of us to drive a lot more carefully (or leave the driving to our cars). A bit annoying - but safer for everyone in the long run.
Perhaps this isn't quite as exciting as sentient trucks that can transform into robot warriors to defend us from evil, but it is a plausible future that's a little better than today. 10-4 Good Buddy!
But I don't think personal transportation will lead this wave - I think it will be trucks.
In a very few years, I'm guessing that every trip that you take on an Interstate will expose you to a robotrucker.
Think about all the Walmart trucks you see on the road today. Their routes are already carefully planned to deliver the maximum load for the minimum energy cost and minimal wear and tear on the trucks, and they're guided and monitored by GPS every step of the way. I'd never accuse the drivers of these Walmart trucks of being robots - but I think it's really clear that in the very near future they could likely be replaced by robots.
Federal regulations require human drivers to rest every few hours - Robots never have to rest. Perhaps labor lobbyists will succeed in enacting Federal laws to impose the same rules on robots to level the playing field, but I doubt it. More likely, Federal laws will quickly expand the self-driving footholds in California and Nevada to cover the whole country. Once that happens, and once it's cheaper to insure a robotrucker than a human driven truck - companies like Walmart will take the plunge in mass.
This is bad news for truckers. Their profession won't disappear overnight, but it will be their last generation - something like the fate of most cowboys when the railroads eliminated the need for big cattle drives in the 1880s. The long trail drives from Texas to Abilene Kansas ended for good when the railroads reached the ranches near Abilene Texas. Cowboys survive to this day, but their role in the transportation of cattle ended long ago.
Inching a bit further out on the predictive limb... My guess is that the rise of robotruckers will correspond with the pervasive use of compressed natural gas as the primary truck fuel. CNG is far from a perfect fuel, but natural gas is plentiful and has a well established distribution network. Pipe gas to truck stops, compress it using solar or wind power, and you've got a cleaner and more plentiful fuel than the diesel most trucks currently use. Maybe not as green as batteries or fuel cells, but much less exotic, and thus more likely to gain traction... and if CNG becomes readily available at truck stops it will become much more available for personal vehicles - a win for those of us who would like that option.
But I digress... The fuel preference of robotruckers will likely have less of an effect on the rest of us than the high likelihood that robotruckers will be tattle-tales - they'll likely report every speeder and reckless driver they encounter.
Imagine a world where every truck that you pass is a rolling red-light camera and radar trap...
Robotruckers only concerns are selfish. They need to get their loads to their destination as efficiently and predictably as they can. Their owners are likewise selfish - and the cost of accidents and insurance premiums motivates them to do whatever they can to reduce the number of the first and the cost of the latter. What better way to make life for the robotrucker safer and more predictable than to report drivers who represent a threat?
In many cities, the public has been able to block the universally dispised red light cameras by pressuring public officials - but public outrage won't ever silence those who report unsafe drivers - and a legion of dispassionate and accurate robotruckers reporting every transgression is going to force the rest of us to drive a lot more carefully (or leave the driving to our cars). A bit annoying - but safer for everyone in the long run.
Perhaps this isn't quite as exciting as sentient trucks that can transform into robot warriors to defend us from evil, but it is a plausible future that's a little better than today. 10-4 Good Buddy!
